TEHRAN – Iran and the United States held what Iranian officials described as their “most serious” round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva on Thursday, agreeing to continue discussions in Vienna next week, but developments across the region suggest Washington may still be leaning toward a military confrontation—an outcome that several regional governments have warned would be devastating.

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, told reporters minutes after the talks concluded that the latest round had been “the most serious” to date.

“We made good progress and seriously entered discussions on a nuclear agreement,” he said in comments to IRIB. Araghchi attended the indirect talks while accompanied by his political, legal, and economic deputies, the Foreign Ministry’s spokesman, and a team of nuclear experts.

Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi—who has served as mediator and gobetween—said the two sides agreed to resume negotiations “soon” following consultations in their respective capitals. Technicallevel talks, he said, are scheduled for next week in Vienna. Writing on X, Albusaidi described the Geneva discussions as yielding “significant progress.”

In followup remarks posted Friday, Araghchi said the third round of talks concluded with a “mutual understanding” to move into more detailed negotiations on issues essential to any agreement. Those issues, he said, include the termination of U.S. sanctions and the framework under which Iran would limit certain nuclear activities.

Iran has long laid out clear red lines, which it has maintained for years, including during negotiations in June 2025 that were abruptly derailed by a U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign launched ahead of a scheduled sixth round of talks. That war ended after Iran inflicted significant damage on Israeli cities and U.S. assets in the region, while its own nuclear facilities were struck.

President Donald Trump later claimed the attacks had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. Yet his special envoy and lead negotiator, Steve Witkoff, said last week that Iran was “probably a week away from having industrialgrade bombmaking material.” 

Iran has also refused to negotiate over its missile program, which it notes is permitted under international law and which proved central to its defense during the 12day war. Iranian missile strikes caused heavy damage in Israeli cities and hit the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest U.S. military installation in West Asia, ultimately forcing Israel and the United States to seek a ceasefire.

While Iranian missiles cannot reach U.S. territory, Israeli officials have pushed for limits that would reduce their range to 300 kilometers—restrictions that would allow Israel to strike Iran with impunity, as it routinely does in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza. Israel has also carried out attacks in Qatar in 2025, Iraq in 2024, and repeatedly in Yemen over the past two years.

Despite the positive tone struck by Iranian and Omani officials, Washington has shown little public enthusiasm for a diplomatic settlement. In the only official U.S. remarks since the Geneva talks concluded, Vice President JD Vance sought to downplay Iranian warnings that any new attack would trigger a regional war.

“The idea that we’re going to be in a Middle Eastern war for years with no end in sight—there is no chance that will happen,” Vance told The Washington Post, after he declared that Trump is still weighing military strikes against Iran. 

The renewed negotiations followed extensive diplomatic efforts by at least seven regional countries, which, according to reports, warned Washington that a new war with Iran would have catastrophic consequences not only for the region but for the global economy. Iranian officials have said Tehran could close the Strait of Hormuz—through which more than 20 percent of the world’s energy supply passes—and strike the strategic assets of any country that allows U.S. forces to use its airspace for an attack.

Iran’s regional allies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ansarullah in Yemen, and Resistance groups in Iraq, have also said they would not remain on the sidelines in the event of renewed U.S. aggression.

Analysts say it is highly unlikely that limited U.S. strikes could force Iran into major concessions or topple the Islamic Republic, and that even a prolonged campaign offers no guarantee of success. Such a war, they warn, could prove politically disastrous for Trump at home. Iranian military exercises earlier this month demonstrated the country’s ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz—an outcome analysts say could push oil prices above $130 a barrel.

Iran has also warned that, unlike in its previous responses, it would not seek to avoid American casualties in a future conflict. Between 40,000 and 50,000 U.S. troops are stationed within range of Iranian missiles and drones across West Asia.

Recent developments have heightened concerns among analysts that Washington may already be preparing for war. Those include reports of U.S. embassy evacuations in Iraq and the occupied territories, along with the arrival of additional fighter jets and refueling aircraft at Israeli bases. Iranian officials have said that Israel would be pounded again in any new conflict.